The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing CO_dos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China’s urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.

Introduction

There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China’s dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO₂ emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .

Program fictional character modelling of urbanization around opportunity limitations when you look at the Asia

Although metropolitan extension would accelerate times consumption 17,18,19 , this new motor vehicle fuel fool around with has a tendency to correlate negatively for the urbanization peak on account of economies regarding level 20,21,22 . For example, more urbanized section inside the Canada consumed lower for every capita time 23 . At the same time, complete times consumption of outlying property is larger than that of urban homes, once the more 85% of rural homes fool around with ineffective solid fuel twenty-four . Based on Customers Data Program, 275 towns around the globe have fun with hydropower, 189 metropolitan areas explore piece of cake stamina, and you will 184 cities explore solar power photovoltaic strength. At least 100 metropolitan areas play with renewable energy to get to 70% from stamina, such as for example Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and Nairobi. In america, 58 cities, in addition to Atlanta and San diego, provides intends to changeover to a hundred% neat and renewable power. On present technical and energy shop, it is anticipated to go one hundred% renewable power also provide all over the world and you Sitios de citas de Women’s Choice will go zero carbon dioxide pollutants of the 2025. The worldwide stamina age bracket structure in 2050 is expected since the below: solar solar pv (69%), piece of cake strength (18%), hydropower (8%), and you will biomass (2%), having time stores battery packs covering 29% off power consult. It’s noted that most of your own earth’s premier dams and you will power vegetation can be found in China, while you are Yunnan Province and you may Guizhou State contribute 31% away from China’s hydropower. The newest Jinsha Lake alone have a great nine-top dam. The fresh electricity from such hydropower is myself transmitted in order to Guangdong and Hong-kong through the large-current grid. Due to the plentiful hydropower tips available for cooling, Guizhou State has feel China’s foremost study cardiovascular system legs. In the 2018, Apple Company built this new iCloud analysis cardiovascular system into the Guizhou. Almost every higher It company out of China have arranged studies facilities from inside the Guizhou, along with Alibaba, Huawei, and you can Asia Cellular.

Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO₂ emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO₂ emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.